Powder Blue Bias

Two weeks ago I, an enthusiastic Titans fan, found myself face to face with an avid Colts fan. I began to speak, but before I got a word out, she promptly told me not to talk smack for the Titans, as I had no room to boast. Apparently my years of pride and prejudice had proceeded me. Realizing that she was most likely right, I took a moment to call a mental huddle to dial up a high percentage play. My thoughts lined up, looked the adversary in the eyes, and snapped the ball.

I bet that the Tennessee Titans would finish the season with a better record than the Indianapolis Colts.

Loser takes the winner out an exquisitely formal dinner at the restaurant of the winner's choice.

Staring down the barrel of 3rd & 7, I dialed up the fake punt.

Why would I make such a bodacious move? Pride? Madness? Faith?

Funny how often the three seem to correlate for sports fans.

After taking your choice between hubris, madness, and sureness, you find me in likely position to eat my words, or more relevantly, an upscale dinner for two. 

Then, tragedy struck. Rumor grew of a shadow in the East, whispers of a nameless fear, and Peyton Manning's injury perceived. Minutes turned to hours. Hours turned to days. Kerry Collins came out of retirement. My mindset began to change. Could Peyton's neck surgery mark the changing of the guard?

The sands were shifting all around the AFC South. Arian Foster's hamstring continued to suffer from "antiawesomeness" down in Houston. The Jaguars waived the white flag and cut veteran starting quarterback, David Garrard. And, much to my delight, Chris Johnson agreed to a new contract with the Titans, becoming the highest paid running back in NFL history.

Could my madness pay off?

I think so. Here's why, team by team:

Houston Texans

The up-and-coming Texans find themselves as the darlings of the AFC South. And why not?  With the dynamic pass catching tandem of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, the NFL's rushing leader in Arian Foster, a healthy Owen Daniels with a new contract, and a talented offensive line, they should be poised for a playoff run, right?

Wrong.

Thanks to something I will label as the "Kubiak Effect", I see this "loaded" team getting pulled right back into the sub .500 rut where they've made a living under the tenure of head coach Gary
Kubiak. What can I say, the man just has a will to lose. Anyone else remember when this team finished last season on a 2-8 run? I bet Texans fans sure do.

Mastermind Wade Philip, has taken the helm of the NFL's worst pass defense and implemented a drastically new 3-4 scheme. Houston has also taken their best defender, defensive end Mario Williams, and converted him into an outside linebacker. The guy's an incredibly talented pass rusher, but I can't wait until he's asked to drop back and cover the likes of Dallas Clark, Marcedes Lewis, and Jared Cook.

Houston's offense will put up plenty of points, but I have my doubts that one month of working in the 3-4 will be enough to mesh. On paper, this team looks undeniably dangerous, but if history repeats itself, I see have trouble seeing Kubiak's Texans on top of the divisional race.

Prediction: 2nd in Division (8-8)

Indianapolis Colts

You don't need me to tell you things are looking back in Indi. Everything this team does revolves around the greatness of Peyton Manning, who is now out indefinitely. The up tempo, quick striking offense relies on the quarterback to read the defense and put the pieces into place to methodically move the chains. Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie are all talented route runners, but without Peyton's precision, they're much less frightening for opposing defenses. Speaking of defenses, you won't find a unit on the Colts that depends more on Manning's offensive ingenuity than Larry Coyer's defense. This 4-3 plays small and fast, with two of the league's finest pass rushers playing as bookends for the undersized defensive line. They thrive on passing situations, which are frequent when Manning is putting up big points on the other side of the ball. Without their offensive general, the Colts will likely be playing in close games, or from behind, which means a lot more rushing attempts heading toward one of the league's more insecure run defenses. For the first time in a decade, the Colts may very well find themselves at the bottom of the totem pole. 

Prediction: 4th in Division (5-11)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Speaking of the Jaguars, it's nice to see that Del Rio has already surrendered the 2011 season. With Garrard off the roster, Jacksonville will see Luke McCown under center for Week 1. Oh man.

You have to believe that once Blaine Gabbert is ready to take the starting gig, he'll get his shot and the Jags will begin working on a new dynasty. I think Gabbert's going to be a fine quarterback down the road, but as far as this year goes, the combo of McCown and Gabbert aren't going to scare too many opponents. Jacksonville will likely face eight man fronts week in and week out, which could lead to big numbers for tight end Marcedes Lewis, but certainly doesn't bode well for Maurice Jones Drew, the team's true offensive bright spot. 

I think we'll see notable improvements in Jacksonville's defense this year, especially in the secondary, but the pass rush will be in trouble if star defensive end Aaron Kampman's knee troubles escalate. We'll learn more when they face off against Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt at home in Week 1.

Prediction: 3rd in Division (6-10)

Tennessee Titans

Here comes the powder blue bias. I've stated my case for a division ready to be claimed by the Titans, who bring talent back on both sides of the ball. Tennessee was playing good football last season until the torrent of drama came cascading into LP Field, washing away long time friend Jeff Fisher, former first round pick Vince Young, and a majority of the coaching staff. Simply put, the season ended in flames (except for the final showdown against Houston. Thanks, Gary).

In the aftermath, Tennessee hired Hall of Famer Mike Munchak to serve as head coach, along with selecting quarterback Jake Locker in the first round of the NFL Draft, officially marking a new beginning for the franchise. However, with the lockout in full force, Titans fans didn't have high hopes for the 2011 season. 

Then, something beautiful happened. The lockout came to an end. The franchise reached out to sign free agents, including veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, defensive tank Shaun Smith, and west coast safety Jordan Babineaux. Chris Johnson signed his contract, and Kenny Britt didn't receive a suspension for his offseason shenanigans. Coach Munchak established himself as someone coaches, players, and fans could believe in. Surprisingly, Titans fans saw life begin to bloom from the settling dust.

As the preseason began, fans could tell that the players were buying into the new philosophies of the coaching staff. New defensive coordinator Jerry Gray's arsenal looked bigger, more formidable, and confident. Hell, they were even tackling. On the offensive side, Hasselbeck quickly established a rhythm with the historically not-so-sure handed Nate Washington and all 6'5" 250lbs of break out candidate, Jared Cook. The veteran still has it, and with one of the league's best offensive lines led by Roos, an interesting receiver corps helmed by Britt, and one of the game's most dangerous weapons in running back Chris Johnson, this offense is going to score some points.

I recently read an encouraging article by the Sports Guy, Bill Simmons, where he also predicted the Titans to rise up and take the division. The Titans may seem iffy coming out of the lockout with a new head coach and new quarterback, but as Simmons notes, could things possibly be any less stable than they were last season? Not a chance. The Tennessee Titans rise from the ashes this season and give the Texans all they want in a race to the playoffs.

Prediction: 1st in Division (10-6)

In summary, I stand in hurbis, madness, and sureness declaring that my powder blue bias will pay off. And if worse comes to worse, and Indi finds a way to once again claim the AFC South, a ritzy date is still a ritzy date. Even if it is with a Colts fan.

Go Titans.